On a regular basis, I go through all my files, clippings, etc. Most things I save “in the moment” turn out to be useless shortly thereafter. So, those get chucked.
One of the interesting things I found saved from earlier was a list of bear market indicators from Bank of America. Sharing them here with you.
- Federal Reserve raising interest rates
- Tightening credit conditions
- Minimum returns in the last 12 months of a bull market have been 11%
- Minimum returns in the last 24 months of a bull market have been 30%
- Low quality stocks outperform high quality stocks (over 6 months)
- Momentum stocks outperforming (over 6 to 12 months)
- Growth stocks outperforming (over 6 to 12 months)
- 5% pullback in stocks over the last year
- Stocks with low price-to-earnings ratio underperform
- Conference Board’s consumer confidence level has not hit 100 within 24 months
- Conference Board’s percentage expecting stocks go higher
- Lack of reward for earnings beat
- Sell side indicator, a contrarian measure of sell side equity optimism
- Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows high levels of cash
- Inverted yield curve
- Change in long-term growth expectations
- Rule of 20, trailing price-to-earnings ratio added to CPI is above 20
- Volatility index spikes over 20 at some point within the last 3 months
- Earnings estimate revisions rule
I found many of these to be interesting, and useful.
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