On a regular basis, I go through all my files, clippings, etc. Most things I save “in the moment” turn out to be useless shortly thereafter. So, those get chucked.

One of the interesting things I found saved from earlier was a list of bear market indicators from Bank of America. Sharing them here with you.

  1. Federal Reserve raising interest rates
  2. Tightening credit conditions
  3. Minimum returns in the last 12 months of a bull market have been 11%
  4. Minimum returns in the last 24 months of a bull market have been 30%
  5. Low quality stocks outperform high quality stocks (over 6 months)
  6. Momentum stocks outperforming (over 6 to 12 months)
  7. Growth stocks outperforming (over 6 to 12 months)
  8. 5% pullback in stocks over the last year
  9. Stocks with low price-to-earnings ratio underperform
  10. Conference Board’s consumer confidence level has not hit 100 within 24 months
  11. Conference Board’s percentage expecting stocks go higher
  12. Lack of reward for earnings beat
  13. Sell side indicator, a contrarian measure of sell side equity optimism
  14. Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows high levels of cash
  15. Inverted yield curve
  16. Change in long-term growth expectations
  17. Rule of 20, trailing price-to-earnings ratio added to CPI is above 20
  18. Volatility index spikes over 20 at some point within the last 3 months
  19. Earnings estimate revisions rule

I found many of these to be interesting, and useful.